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Sociedad vs Ath Bilbao

Sat 01 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 38.3%

Draw: 32.3%

Ath Bilbao win: 29.3%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 93.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.85

More corners: Ath Bilbao (42.2% home / 57.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 68.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (93.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.