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Sociedad vs Betis

Sat 13 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 34.0%

Draw: 27.9%

Betis win: 38.2%

Predicted: Betis

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 80.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.47

More corners: Betis (44.2% home / 55.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Betis

Yes

Probability Betis wins or draws: 64.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (80.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Betis win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.