← Back to fixtures

Sociedad vs Celta

Tue 15 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 48.0%

Draw: 31.1%

Celta win: 20.9%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 89.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.58

More corners: Celta (46.7% home / 53.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 61.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 31%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (89.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.