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Sociedad vs Elche

Sat 27 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 56.2%

Draw: 28.3%

Elche win: 15.5%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 87.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.83

More corners: Elche (46.2% home / 53.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 80.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (56% vs next-best 28%). (56.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (88.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.