← Back to fixtures

Sociedad vs Espanol

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:00 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 52.1%

Draw: 29.0%

Espanol win: 18.9%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 92.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.29

More corners: Espanol (47.9% home / 52.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 78.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 29%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (92.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.