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Sociedad vs Getafe

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 50.6%

Draw: 33.4%

Getafe win: 16.0%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.9

More corners: Getafe (46.5% home / 53.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 66.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 33%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.