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Sociedad vs Osasuna

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 49.7%

Draw: 29.5%

Osasuna win: 20.8%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 36.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.17

More corners: Osasuna (46.2% home / 53.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 73.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 30%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score No (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.