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Sociedad vs Sevilla

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 45.1%

Draw: 33.8%

Sevilla win: 21.0%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 85.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.08

More corners: Sevilla (46.2% home / 53.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 78.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 34%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (85.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.