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Sociedad vs Valencia

Sat 03 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 44.2%

Draw: 31.3%

Valencia win: 24.5%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 88.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.22

More corners: Valencia (45.1% home / 54.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Valencia

Yes

Probability Valencia wins or draws: 61.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 31%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (88.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Valencia win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.