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Sociedad vs Villarreal

Sat 29 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 38 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 33.7%

Draw: 28.8%

Villarreal win: 37.4%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 76.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.56

More corners: Villarreal (43.6% home / 56.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 64.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (76.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.