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Valencia vs Celta

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Valencia win: 44.0%

Draw: 34.1%

Celta win: 21.9%

Predicted: Valencia

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 86.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.0

More corners: Valencia (59.4% home / 40.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 64.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Valencia Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 34%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (87.0% model probability) High

Corners Valencia (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.