← Back to fixtures

Valencia vs Osasuna

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Valencia win: 46.2%

Draw: 31.8%

Osasuna win: 22.0%

Predicted: Valencia

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 89.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.85

More corners: Valencia (55.7% home / 44.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Valencia

Yes

Probability Valencia wins or draws: 71.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Valencia Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 32%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (89.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Valencia win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.