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Valencia vs Sevilla

Sat 23 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Valencia win: 39.2%

Draw: 35.8%

Sevilla win: 25.0%

Predicted: Valencia

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 74.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 41.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.35

More corners: Valencia (55.7% home / 44.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Valencia

Yes

Probability Valencia wins or draws: 75.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (75.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Valencia win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.