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Vallecano vs Alaves

Thu 20 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Vallecano win: 45.2%

Draw: 33.6%

Alaves win: 21.2%

Predicted: Vallecano

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 43.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Vallecano (58.2% home / 41.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Vallecano

Yes

Probability Vallecano wins or draws: 75.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Vallecano Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 34%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score No (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Vallecano (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Vallecano win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.