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Vallecano vs Getafe

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Vallecano win: 44.3%

Draw: 37.2%

Getafe win: 18.5%

Predicted: Vallecano

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 12.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 41.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.24

More corners: Vallecano (60.6% home / 39.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Vallecano

Yes

Probability Vallecano wins or draws: 73.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score No (88.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Vallecano (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Vallecano win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.