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Vallecano vs Osasuna

Sat 06 Mar 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Vallecano win: 46.9%

Draw: 31.3%

Osasuna win: 21.8%

Predicted: Vallecano

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Vallecano (54.6% home / 45.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Vallecano

Yes

Probability Vallecano wins or draws: 71.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Vallecano Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 31%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Vallecano win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.