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Vallecano vs Real Madrid

Sat 30 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Vallecano win: 19.6%

Draw: 30.5%

Real Madrid win: 49.8%

Predicted: Real Madrid

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 69.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.26

More corners: Vallecano (54.4% home / 45.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Real Madrid

Yes

Probability Real Madrid wins or draws: 78.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Real Madrid Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 30%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Real Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.