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Vallecano vs Villarreal

Sat 01 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Vallecano win: 31.0%

Draw: 30.4%

Villarreal win: 38.6%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.23

More corners: Vallecano (58.6% home / 41.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 63.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Corners Vallecano (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.