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Villarreal vs Alaves

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Villarreal win: 58.4%

Draw: 25.7%

Alaves win: 15.8%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 93.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.58

More corners: Villarreal (59.9% home / 40.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 82.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Villarreal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (58% vs next-best 26%). (58.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (93.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Villarreal (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (82.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.