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Villarreal vs Ath Madrid

Tue 20 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 33 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Villarreal win: 44.0%

Draw: 27.4%

Ath Madrid win: 28.7%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 79.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.03

More corners: Villarreal (56.9% home / 43.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Madrid

Yes

Probability Ath Madrid wins or draws: 66.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Villarreal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 29%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (80.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Madrid win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.