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Villarreal vs Osasuna

Sat 22 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Villarreal win: 58.5%

Draw: 25.0%

Osasuna win: 16.4%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.82

More corners: Villarreal (52.3% home / 47.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 78.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Villarreal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (58% vs next-best 25%). (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.