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Villarreal vs RC Deportivo

Sat 05 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Villarreal win: 56.7%

Draw: 28.0%

RC Deportivo win: 15.3%

Predicted: Villarreal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 92.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.43

More corners: RC Deportivo (49.8% home / 50.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Villarreal

Yes

Probability Villarreal wins or draws: 77.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Villarreal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 28%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (92.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Villarreal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (77.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.