Queretaro vs Toluca prediction

Sun 23 Aug 2026, 04:30 IST · Round 34 · Data: OK

Queretaro vs Toluca Liga MX prediction for Sun 23 Aug 2026,. Underlying 1X2 lean is Toluca (19% home / 33% draw / 48% away). Model markets — Both Teams to Score: Yes (56%); Total Goals: Over 2.5 (58%). This will be the first meeting between Queretaro and Toluca in the data this model was trained on. Educational ML estimate — not betting advice.

Prediction Insights

Safer Result No pick Neither the calibrated 70% double-chance bar nor the stricter 75% exact-win bar was cleared. Low

Both Teams to Score Yes High 56% model

Total Goals Over 2.5 High 58% model

Model-derived leans only — not betting advice.

Underlying 1X2 probabilities

Queretaro win: 18.7%

Draw: 33.3%

Toluca win: 48.0%

Highest 1X2 model score: Toluca. The actionable result pick, if one qualifies, is labelled Safer Result above.

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: nan

More corners: nan (nan% home / nan% away)

Live lineup data unavailable for this fixture.

Match context (form & H2H)

This will be the first meeting between Queretaro and Toluca in the data this model was trained on.

Form and H2H come from this league's historical match data — the same training inputs, not a separate estimate.

Match Analysis

Scout-style context from squad stats, match history, and weather. It does not change the machine-learning probabilities shown below.

Players mapped to team form

Queretaro's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Toluca's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Home / away ground

Measured home advantage for Queretaro: +0.46 points vs neutral baseline.

Underdog edge

Elo gap ~190 favors Toluca. In similar historical gaps, the underdog (Queretaro) won outright 21% of the time (sample 560) — underdog edge is real but uncommon.

Attack & counter

Queretaro recent profile: balanced attack/defence (1.6 GF / 1.2 GA per game).

Toluca: balanced attack/defence (1.2 GF / 1.2 GA).

Shot quality treats off-target shots as half an on-target shot.

Scout verdict

Scout synthesis: similar Elo gaps historically see the underdog win outright ~21% of the time (n=560). Model lean (unchanged by this scout note): Toluca.