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Angers vs Auxerre

Fri 05 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Angers win: 31.3%

Draw: 28.9%

Auxerre win: 39.8%

Predicted: Auxerre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.91

More corners: Auxerre (39.3% home / 60.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Auxerre

Yes

Probability Auxerre wins or draws: 63.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Auxerre Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Corners Auxerre (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Auxerre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.