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Angers vs Lorient

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Angers win: 29.6%

Draw: 30.5%

Lorient win: 39.9%

Predicted: Lorient

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.14

More corners: Lorient (42.3% home / 57.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lorient

Yes

Probability Lorient wins or draws: 64.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lorient Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 30%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lorient win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.