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Angers vs Troyes

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Angers win: 43.9%

Draw: 25.2%

Troyes win: 30.9%

Predicted: Angers

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 48.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.63

More corners: Angers (54.8% home / 45.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Angers

Yes

Probability Angers wins or draws: 59.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Angers Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 31%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Angers win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.