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Auxerre vs Brest

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 43.2%

Draw: 26.5%

Brest win: 30.3%

Predicted: Auxerre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.62

More corners: Auxerre (53.7% home / 46.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Auxerre

Yes

Probability Auxerre wins or draws: 64.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Auxerre Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 30%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Auxerre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.