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Auxerre vs Le Mans FC

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 42.1%

Draw: 29.5%

Le Mans FC win: 28.4%

Predicted: Auxerre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.45

More corners: Auxerre (55.1% home / 44.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Auxerre

Yes

Probability Auxerre wins or draws: 55.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Auxerre Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 30%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Auxerre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (55.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.