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Auxerre vs Lille

Fri 26 Feb 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 26.1%

Draw: 24.8%

Lille win: 49.0%

Predicted: Lille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.53

More corners: Lille (37.8% home / 62.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 68.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Lille (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.