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Auxerre vs Lorient

Fri 16 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 40.6%

Draw: 27.9%

Lorient win: 31.5%

Predicted: Auxerre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Auxerre (54.0% home / 46.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lorient

Yes

Probability Lorient wins or draws: 62.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Auxerre Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 32%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lorient win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.