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Auxerre vs Lyon

Fri 30 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 25.9%

Draw: 25.6%

Lyon win: 48.5%

Predicted: Lyon

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.42

More corners: Lyon (41.6% home / 58.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lyon

Yes

Probability Lyon wins or draws: 63.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lyon Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 26%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Lyon (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lyon win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.