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Auxerre vs Marseille

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 25.5%

Draw: 25.5%

Marseille win: 49.0%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.57

More corners: Marseille (36.7% home / 63.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 70.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Marseille (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.