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Auxerre vs Strasbourg

Fri 12 Feb 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Auxerre win: 27.2%

Draw: 24.2%

Strasbourg win: 48.6%

Predicted: Strasbourg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.49

More corners: Strasbourg (44.5% home / 55.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Strasbourg

Yes

Probability Strasbourg wins or draws: 58.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Strasbourg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 27%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Strasbourg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.