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Brest vs Lorient

Fri 02 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brest win: 41.9%

Draw: 28.5%

Lorient win: 29.6%

Predicted: Brest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.51

More corners: Brest (50.6% home / 49.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lorient

Yes

Probability Lorient wins or draws: 64.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brest Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 30%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lorient win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.