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Brest vs Nice

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brest win: 45.2%

Draw: 25.7%

Nice win: 29.1%

Predicted: Brest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.54

More corners: Nice (49.1% home / 50.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brest

Yes

Probability Brest wins or draws: 66.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brest Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 29%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.