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Brest vs Strasbourg

Fri 29 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brest win: 28.7%

Draw: 26.3%

Strasbourg win: 45.0%

Predicted: Strasbourg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Strasbourg (43.2% home / 56.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Strasbourg

Yes

Probability Strasbourg wins or draws: 59.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Strasbourg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 29%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Strasbourg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.