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Brest vs Troyes

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brest win: 52.1%

Draw: 22.3%

Troyes win: 25.6%

Predicted: Brest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.99

More corners: Brest (54.0% home / 46.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brest

Yes

Probability Brest wins or draws: 63.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brest Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 26%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.