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Le Havre vs Auxerre

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Le Havre win: 38.2%

Draw: 28.0%

Auxerre win: 33.8%

Predicted: Le Havre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.49

More corners: Auxerre (48.9% home / 51.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Auxerre

Yes

Probability Auxerre wins or draws: 64.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Auxerre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.