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Le Havre vs Nice

Fri 05 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Le Havre win: 39.8%

Draw: 27.1%

Nice win: 33.1%

Predicted: Le Havre

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.53

More corners: Le Havre (51.2% home / 48.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nice

Yes

Probability Nice wins or draws: 65.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nice win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.