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Le Havre vs Toulouse

Fri 05 Feb 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Le Havre win: 31.7%

Draw: 27.8%

Toulouse win: 40.5%

Predicted: Toulouse

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.6

More corners: Toulouse (45.1% home / 54.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 67.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Toulouse Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 32%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.