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Le Havre vs Troyes

Fri 02 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Le Havre win: 47.6%

Draw: 23.4%

Troyes win: 29.0%

Predicted: Le Havre

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.87

More corners: Le Havre (55.9% home / 44.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Le Havre

Yes

Probability Le Havre wins or draws: 60.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Le Havre Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 29%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Le Havre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.