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Le Mans FC vs Lille

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Le Mans FC win: 26.3%

Draw: 24.7%

Lille win: 49.0%

Predicted: Lille

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.59

More corners: Lille (32.0% home / 68.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 58.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Lille (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.