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Le Mans FC vs Toulouse

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Le Mans FC win: 38.6%

Draw: 27.1%

Toulouse win: 34.3%

Predicted: Le Mans FC

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 47.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.75

More corners: Toulouse (48.9% home / 51.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 55.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.