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Lille vs Brest

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lille win: 58.7%

Draw: 22.3%

Brest win: 19.0%

Predicted: Lille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.4

More corners: Lille (68.1% home / 31.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 74.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (59% vs next-best 22%). (59.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Lille (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.