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Lille vs Lyon

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lille win: 46.9%

Draw: 25.0%

Lyon win: 28.1%

Predicted: Lille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.15

More corners: Lille (60.6% home / 39.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 58.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 28%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Lille (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.