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Lille vs Marseille

Fri 05 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lille win: 46.8%

Draw: 24.6%

Marseille win: 28.6%

Predicted: Lille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Lille (59.8% home / 40.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 64.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Lille (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.