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Lorient vs Marseille

Fri 22 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lorient win: 26.3%

Draw: 29.0%

Marseille win: 44.7%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.57

More corners: Marseille (42.4% home / 57.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 69.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 29%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.