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Lorient vs Monaco

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lorient win: 29.6%

Draw: 27.6%

Monaco win: 42.7%

Predicted: Monaco

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.43

More corners: Monaco (43.6% home / 56.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Monaco

Yes

Probability Monaco wins or draws: 65.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Monaco Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 30%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Monaco win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.