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Lorient vs Strasbourg

Fri 07 May 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lorient win: 29.5%

Draw: 28.1%

Strasbourg win: 42.4%

Predicted: Strasbourg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Lorient (51.0% home / 49.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Strasbourg

Yes

Probability Strasbourg wins or draws: 59.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Strasbourg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 30%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Strasbourg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.