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Lorient vs Toulouse

Fri 11 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lorient win: 41.8%

Draw: 31.5%

Toulouse win: 26.7%

Predicted: Lorient

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.59

More corners: Lorient (54.9% home / 45.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 65.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lorient Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.